Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

561
FXUS62 KMHX 060828
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
428 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will push offshore today. A cold front will move
through ENC this weekend. Unsettled weather will continue
through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Friday...The surface low is currently sitting over the
western edge of the CWA and will continue progressing northeastwards
through the morning. The west/east draped warm front associated with
this low is draped across the Outer Banks and is supporting ongoing
showers and thunderstorms along the coast and offshore. Winds have
decoupled across much of the CWA, allowing dense patchy fog and low
stratus to overspread the area. Fog should burn off quickly after
sunrise but will linger the longest across the inner coastal plain.
It should also be noted that some guidance is hinting at fog
developing across the NOBX this afternoon, but confidence in this is
low at this time.

The trend for today has been drier with only isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Along the immediate
coast, PoPs will decrease over the next few hours as the low moves
offshore. This afternoon, a shortwave will move across the area and
the seabreeze will become pinned near the coast as surface winds
veer from southwest to northwest. This should prohibit showers and
thunderstorms from making it to the inner coastal plain, keeping the
corridor of highest PoPs east of Highway 17 and west of the Outer
Banks.

Coastal plain high temps will be about 10 degrees warmer today (mid-
to upper-80s) while areas along the coast will be about the same as
yesterday (near 80). These temps, paired with dews in the low-70s,
will build instability and generate 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Convective activity is expected to be isolated to widely scattered
at best, but a few stronger thunderstorms along the seabreeze remain
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3:45 AM Friday...PoPs will decrease as the seabreeze fizzles
this evening. As we head into the overnight hours, a mid-level
shortwave will approach the area. This boundary will increase cloud
cover through the night, keeping lows mild near 70. PoPs will
gradually increase at the end of the period ahead of a potentially
potent system progged to impact ENC on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon
   and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening.

 - Unsettled weather will continue through much of the rest of
   the long term.

A mid level shortwave and sfc cold front approach the area
Saturday bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms back
into the forecast. Could see some strong to potentially severe
storms late Saturday and Saturday evening with moderate
instability (SBCAPE values peak around 1500-2000+ J/Kg) and
0-6k bulk shear around 30-35 kt. PW values remain around
1.75-2" and the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy
rainfall as well. Similar environmental conditions persist into
Sunday with another shortwave trough pushing across the
region bringing another round of strong to severe storms during
the afternoon and evening hours. SPC has the region in a slight
risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms both Saturday and Sunday
with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Saturday looks to
be the warmest day of the long term with highs in the low 90s
inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Continued warm on
Sunday with temps a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday.

An upper low digs into the Great Lakes early next week with
cyclonic flow developing across the region and a series of
shortwave troughs advecting through the flow aloft keeping
unsettled weather in the forecast for the rest of the long
term. The airmass remains conditionally unstable with modest
shear most days and could see a few strong storms, especially
during peak heating. Persistent SW flow aloft will bring a
descent tropical moisture feed into the region with PW values
around 1.75-2", which is above the 90th percentile for this
time of year, keeping a threat of heavy rainfall each day. Temps
look to be near to a few degrees above normal early to middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1:30 AM Friday...The TAF sites are currently a mixed bag
of flight cats ranging from VFR to LIFR. Widespread MVFR/IFR
flight cats are expected to persist through the overnight hours
with CIGs lingering between 300-500 feet and VIS between 3-5
miles. Leaned toward the more pessimistic GLAMP, which shows a
very slow recovery after sunrise with CIGs not returning to MVFR
until 14-16z. Clouds will gradually lift and dissipate through
the afternoon with VFR conditions expected to return by
approximately 18z with only high clouds lingering through the
rest of the period. Light southerly winds overnight will veer to
the northwest shortly after sunrise and back to the southwest
by this time tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Friday...An unsettled pattern will prevail through
much of the long term keeping periods of showers and
thunderstorms bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions across the
region. There will also be the threat for late night/early
morning fog each day as well.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3:50 AM Friday...Great boating conditions are expected
through the short term with sub- SCA winds and seas across all
waters. South of Cape Hatteras, 10-15 kt winds will remain
southwesterly. North of Cape Hatteras and closer to the surface
low, 10-15 kt winds will be more variable. These waters will
start out with south-southeasterly winds this morning, become
northwesterly by tonight, and southwesterly by tomorrow morning.
Seas will generally be 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday though Tuesday/...
As of 415 AM Friday... A front approaches the waters Saturday
but stalls inland from the coast before lifting to the north. SW
winds around 10-20 kt expected to prevail through Monday with
strongest winds during afternoon and evening hours when the
diurnal thermal gradient is the tightest. Another cold front
approached from the NW on Tuesday serving to tighten the
gradient a bit more and could see low end SCA conditions
develop, especially across the coastal waters south of Oregon
Inlet with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas generally around 3-5 ft
through the long term with up to 6 ft seas across the
southern/central waters on Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/OJC