Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS62 KMHX 042325
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
725 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory remains in effect for today. Another Heat Advisory
has been issued for SUN.

Record MaxT for New Bern (KEWN) has been set for today. Evening
climate report will include a record statement.

Aviation discussion updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat continues into early next week, but Heat Risk begins to
decrease.

2) A more active pattern takes shape, especially Monday and
Tuesday, where showers and storms are expected.

3) Another round of dangerous heat and humidity may build late
next week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity will continue to build into
ENC from the north and west. The heat peaks today, as low level
thicknesses soar to around 1440M, indicative of high temps
around 100 for interior areas of ENC, threatening some record
highs (see Climate section below), as evident with inland obs
currently showing 99deg. These temps combined with Tds in the
low 70s have pushed heat indices into the 105-110 degree range,
and heat advisory remains in effect for inland ENC and the
NOBX. Beach locales will escape the high heat with afternoon
seabreeze cooling them below HeatAdvy criteria, though heat
indices expected to remain in the 100-105 range here.

Have continued to blend NBM with ECS/MAV/MET guide which is
closer to reality as NBM continues several degrees too high
with MaxTs. Tds also running a bit high with NBM, and today`s
obs support this decision from yesterday.

Tomorrow`s forecast calls for lower Ts resulting in slightly
lower AppTs. Though only certain areas barely reach Heat
Advisory criteria, the compounding nature of the multiple days
of heat and little relief with Ts remaining in the 80s until
after midnight, and only "cooling" down to the mid to upper 70s
in the early morning, have gone ahead and issued a Heat Advisory
for SUN for all mainland zones away from the immediate coast
(Crystal Coast will be cooled enough by seabreeze again).

However, as we move into early next week, we will lose the
extremely hot temps as boundary layer moistens and Tds creep
higher. Despite the lowered temps (MaxTs only in the low/mid
90s), the higher Tds well into the 70s to approaching 80 on the
coast by Monday will act to produce oppressively warm overnight
lows, and may need to extend heat advisories through the
overnight periods as little relief will be seen at night.
Afternoon heat indices will cont AoA 100 due to the higher Tds
even though MaxTs will be lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Return to a pattern of increased shower and
tstorms chances early next week (Mon and Tue). A series of
shortwaves, inland troughing, and a very slow moving backdoor
front will converge to produce higher than climo coverage of
showers and storms each afternoon to early evening, and have
increased pops a bit into the 50-70% range, with much needed
rain across a good portion of ENC expected.

Beyond Tue, pops return back to climo (20-40%) as more typical
seabreeze showers/storms return. Hts/thicknesses slowly build in
the process as ridging begins to build once again, with heat
indices 100-105 in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Aforementioned ridging builds further towards
the end of next week and especially next weekend, as ensemble
mean heights rise back to above normal, and forecast temps
reach the mid to possibly upper 90s, pushing heat indices to
potentially AoA 105deg again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes to the aviation forecast on this update
as there have been no significant optimistic or pessimistic
shifts in guidance for tonight`s and tomorrows forecast. VFR
flight cats expected through the first half of tonight with
SKC with only some patchy cirrus expected. As we get further
into tonight, high pressure offshore sinks a little further S,
opening low level moisture transport off the water. Select HiRes
guidance shows IFR or lower stratus developing offshore with
moisture trapped underneath the nocturnal inversion and pushing
ashore with the light onshore flow after midnight tonight,
though there is little consensus on how far it will push inland.
Have shown this stratus potential with FEW and/or SCT stratus
prevailing groups and included TEMPO groups for the terminals
with the best chance (still not high enough confidence to
include in prevailing group) of seeing subMVFR flight cats. In
addition to this, there is potential for patchy fog to develop
over OAJ where winds will be lighter. Have included the fog
potential in OAJ`s tempo group. Should stratus develop, it will
scour out quickly Sun morning leading to a VFR day with some
patchy diurnal cu and light winds become more SEerly behind a
slightly stronger seabreeze than today.

Outlook (Sun night through Thurs): Upper ridge breaks down
Monday with shortwave energy bringing good chances for showers
and thunderstorms and sub-VFR conditions Mon into Tue. By Wed,
more typical iso to sct showers and storms are expected with
this continuing into Thurs.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds generally 5-15 kt will cont, with the lightest winds
in the morning, inc in the afternoon to evening as thermal
gradient tightens, but gusts generally remain at or below 20
kt. Seas cont around 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft possible across the
outer zones.

Outlook (Sun through Wed): The Bermuda high remains dominant
through the weekend with light winds 5-15 kt and seas around
2-3 ft. Bermuda high pulls offshore late Sunday into Monday with
a front slowly dropping south across the Mid- Atlantic serving
to tighten gradients a bit and expect winds to increase to
around 10-20 kt and seas building to 3-5 ft, but at this time no
SCA conditions are expected through at least mid week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for 7/4 (Saturday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        95/2023  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   94/2020  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      99/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/1997  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    98/1993  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 7/5 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        99/1990  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   92/2018  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     100/2002  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   93/2020  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        104/1902  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    97/1990  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...TL/CEB