Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

486
FXUS62 KMHX 141055
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC
655 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through
the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a
ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday... An upper low over eastern KY/TN will
transition into a shortwave today, as it weakens. The trough
axis associated with the shortwave will swing through the
Carolinas during peak heating today. Shear associated with the
approaching trough axis will sustain some organized convection
across the region this afternoon. SPC has included the area in
another Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). A few HREF members show
convective initiation along the sea breeze during the early
afternoon, but the bulk of activity should develop just west of
the area and track eastward through the afternoon. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the main threats.

A surface trough following the upper trough could prolong showers
overnight, despite weak subsidence aloft. At this point, the severe
threat should have ended, but I have held PoPs around 30%,
especially near the coast where warmer waters will interact with
surface lift and remnant convection. Lows in the mid 60s, around 70
for the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday... Coverage of storms on Thursday
afternoon should be less than previous days. Westerly flow and
an approaching surface trough will interact with the Piedmont
trough and a pinned sea breeze to produce isolated to widely
scattered storms. Weak subsidence aloft creates some question of
confidence in this regime producing precip. Given that surface
based instability is well into summer mode, the slightly wetter
NBM should suffice for PoPs.

As mentioned in the long term discussion last night, ridging will
continue on Friday with very warm temperatures arriving with a
punch. Expect much of the area to battle with the lower 90s and
summer-like humidity. The ridge continues to show signs of holding
drier weather for Friday with PoPs retreating northward away from
the ridge`s periphery.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday... Hot again on Saturday as we likely see
some of the warmest temperatures of the year. Downslope flow
will push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still
in the upper 60s. Heat indices should easily eclipse 100
degrees. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce
isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in
rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the
area.

Temperatures fall a few degrees following the cold front on Sunday
with highs only around 90. Laughable relief from the heat yields
very little in the way of forecast changes for Sunday. A few
isolated afternoon storms will be possible. Another cold front
approaches late Sunday into Monday with drier weather likely through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00Z Thursday/...
As of 700 AM Wednesday... Lingering stratus and patchy fog
will gradually dissipate this morning yielding VFR conditions by
mid morning. VFR for most of the day prior to afternoon
convection.

Thunderstorms are likely to develop west of the area this
afternoon and push northeastward through the CWA. OBX airports
are unlikely to see activity until outflow driven showers or
elevated convection this evening. Timing of the convection will
vary this afternoon as there could be some early afternoon
storms develop along a broken sea breeze, best chance at OAJ and
EWN. ISO and PGV likely to have a better chance with the mid and
late afternoon convection. Any restrictions will be brief,
possibly down to IFR in heavy rain and thunder. Large hail will
be possible with the stronger storms.

LONG TERM /Wednesday evening through Sunday/...
As of 700 AM Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible overnight
tonight due to evening showers and stratus or fog into Thursday
morning. Shower chances decrease late this week and into the
weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible
each day (primarily during the afternoon).

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...Hazardous marine conditions continue
through much of this morning as seas in excess of 6 feet
continue to be observed. SCA has been extended as seas are slow
to decrease when compared to model forecasts. Seas should
improve this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms approach the
waters late this afternoon and increase in coverage offshore
tonight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday... Pleasant boating conditions for the end
of the work week. Saturday afternoon winds pick up again out of
the southwest, but are short lived as Sunday lighter winds
return.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Due to a system upgrade, NOAA Weather Radio from the following
transmitters will be off the air starting 730 AM Monday May 12th
through Wednesday May 14th.

New Bern, NC, KEC84 at 162.400 MHz.
Cape Hatteras, NC, KIG-77 at 162.475 MHz.
Marnie, NC, WWH-26 at 162.425 MHz.
Warsaw, NC, KXI-5 at 162.425 MHz.

Visit www.weather.gov/mhx for the latest forecast information
during the temporary outage. Our internet will NOT be impacted
by the upgrade.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MHX
SHORT TERM...MHX
LONG TERM...MHX
AVIATION...MHX
MARINE...MHX
EQUIPMENT...MHX