Jacksonville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

469
FXUS62 KMHX 040711
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
311 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased PoPs Wednesday afternoon/evening

Increased pre-frontal winds on Thursday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly quiet weather with steadily increasing moisture to
start the week. Sea breeze worth monitoring on Wednesday.

2) A cold front will move through on Thursday, bringing gusty
winds and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some
of which could be strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1..High pressure will expand across the SE today and
winds will shift back to the southwest. This will increase
moisture and temperatures with highs reaching nearly 80 inland
and the low/mid 70s along the coast.

If we`re able to overcome the dry layer between 700-850 mb,
Wednesday`s seabreeze could be active. Machine learning
guidance shows low severe probs (10% or less), but decent bulk
shear and a LLJ could help produce a few robust gusts within
convection. PoPs will continue to increase into the night as a
cold front approaches from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A positively tilted upper-level trough will
move across the Midwest on Thursday, becoming neutral to
negatively tilted over the eastern US Thursday night. At the
surface, a cold front will cross into ENC Thursday afternoon but
isn`t expected to make it to the western edge of the CWA until
Thursday evening. A low will develop along this front, but
guidance still differs on the speed of the front and the
strength and track of the low.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the
day, and there`s a non-zero chance for some storms to be strong
to severe. Forcing will be lacking in the morning, and
depending on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the evening front, destabilization may be dampened. So although
ample bulk shear will be present throughout the day, there are
several factors that could weaken the severe threat.

In addition to showers and storms, Thursday will bring strong SW
winds with gusts to approximately 30 mph inland and 35-40 mph
along the coast.

A secondary low may develop along the offshore front on Friday,
which could support a few showers brushing the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure has moved offshore as of this update allowing calm
winds to become S`rly at 5 knots or less across ENC overnight. S`rly
winds will then increase after sunrise on Monday becoming gusty at
times (around 15-20 kts) primarily behind the seabreeze that
develops Monday afternoon. Winds then become light once again after
sunset Monday.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through the period. Will note, as
we near sunrise today, moisture will gradually return within the
developing southerly flow. This may allow for some shallow ground
fog development, especially at KOAJ and KISO. This MIFG threat is
low either way and not forecast to impact operations even if it does
develop. So, have left it out of the TAFs once again given the
marginal nature of the risk.

Outlook: Our next notable chance at sub-VFR conditions looks to be
around Wednesday/Thursday with the approach of a low pressure system
and its associated fronts. This is forecast to bring showers and
thunderstorms to ENC and thus potential for reduced ceilings and
visibilities.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will return to the SW later this morning and increase to
15-20 kt by this afternoon. Marginal SCA winds are possible
across the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the coastal waters
north of Cape Hatteras from this afternoon through this evening,
but the current forecast has few and infrequent 25 kt gusts, so
no headlines have been issued at this time. Seas will generally
be 3-4 ft.

Outlook: 10-20 kt SW winds will continue through Wednesday with
SCA gusts possible Wednesday night as the gradient tightens
ahead of an approaching cold front. On Thursday, prefrontal SW
winds will increase to 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-40 kt. Winds
will veer to the NW Thursday night and seas will peak at 5-10
ft. Winds will decrease to 15-25 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by
Friday morning with good boating conditions returning by the
afternoon.

Thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusts, will be
possible on Thursday as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...OJC